Insight into the Infection Dynamics of the AIDS Epidemic: A Birth Cohort Analysis of New York City AIDS Mortality
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The authors analyzed the secular trends of New York City acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) mortality from 1980 through the first quarter of 1991 using birth cohort techniques to provide insight into reasons for temporal changes in growth of the epi-demic. By disaggregating AIDS mortality data into composite birth cohorts, the authors determined that the slowing in the growth of the epidemic is a result of a leveling or decline in AIDS deaths in male birth cohorts bom before 1950 and a continued growth in younger male and all female birth cohorts. This phenomenon is believed to largely reflect earlier human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) infection patterns associ-ated with age-related risk behaviors; however, to some lesser extent, it could also reflect age-related host factors or therapies that may influence the time from HIV-1 infection to death. The findings support the hypothesis that the early infection dynamics of the epidemic were differentially related to age and sex, which resulted in a diffusion of infection from older to younger cohorts and from males to females over time. The future growth of the epidemic will largely depend upon the infection patterns of younger birth cohorts. This method of analyzing AIDS incidence or mortality data may contribute to
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.005 | 0.007 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".