Global Poverty and the New Bottom Billion: Three-Quarters of the World’s Poor Live in
Bibliographic record
Abstract
people lived in poor countries—that is, low-income countries (LICs). For 2007–2008, our estimates suggest three things. First, threequarters of the world’s poor, or almost 1 billion poor people, now live in middle-income countries (MICs). Second, just a quarter of the world’s poor live in 39 LICs. Third, in contrast to earlier estimates that a third of the poor live in fragile states, our estimate is about 23 per cent if one takes the broadest definition of fragile and conflictaffected states (FCAS) by combining FCAS lists (43 countries); these countries are split fairly evenly between fragile LICs and fragile MICs. 2. What Questions Does This Raise for Policy and Research? The future of country classifications – Important questions arise. Are the original formulas for LICs/MICs in the early 1970s still relevant in 2010? Is the LIC/MIC threshold line consistent over time if the average inflation rates of LIC/MIC groupings are used instead of international inflation in rich countries? There is growing recognition that definitions of FCAS are
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.004 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.003 | 0.006 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.010 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".