Potential impact of antiviral drug use during influenza pandemic. Emerg Infect Dis, 2005;11(9):1355-62. This article was published on 14 May 2009. Citation style for this article: Boëlle PY, Bernillon P, Desenclos JC. A preliminary estimation of the repro
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The recent spread of highly pathogenic strains of avian influenza has highlighted the threat posed by pandemic influenza. In the early phases of a pandemic, the only treatment available would be neuraminidase inhibitors, which many countries are considering stockpiling for pandemic use. We estimate the effect on hospitalization rates of using different antiviral stockpile sizes to treat infection. We estimate that stockpiles that cover 20%–25 % of the population would be sufficient to treat most of the clinical cases and could lead to 50 % to 77 % reductions in hospitalizations. Substantial reductions in hospitalization could be achieved with smaller antiviral stockpiles if drugs are reserved for persons at high risk. Recent outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza in poultry in East Asia (H5N1), Canada (H7N3), and the Netherlands (H7N7), and their subsequent transmission to humans, have intensified concern over the emergence of a novel strain of influenza with pandemic potential. Three influenza pandemics occurred during the 20th century, with varying degrees of severity; outcomes ranged from the high levels of illness and death observed during the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic (estimates of deaths range from 20 to 100 million [1]) to the much lower levels observed during the pandemics of 1957 and 1968 (≈1 million deaths each [2]). While recognizing that the characteristics of future influenza pandemics are difficult to predict, the World Health Organization (WHO) has recommended that nations prepare pandemic contingency plans (3). Several have been drafted, and some have been published (4–7), although all are subject to continuous refinement. Surveillance, on both a local and global scale, will enable policy makers and practitioners to act during the early phases of a pandemic. However, the likely rapid global spread of a pandemic strain will limit the time available to
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.004 | 0.024 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.004 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".