2010: Uncertainty and Risk and the Crisis of 2008
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
We apologize at the outset for the length of this paper and offer the following reading guide. Part 1 (pp. 7-34) argues that Peter Gourevitch’s work is foundational for the open economy politics (OEP) paradigm in IPE and that neither have a well-founded position on uncertainty in economic affairs. Part 2 (pp. 34-50) discusses how the concepts risk and uncertainty were conflated in modern economic theory and why the distinction, introduced in the 1920s by JM Keynes and Frank Knight, remains relevant for decision making. Part 3 (pp.51-59) uses evidence from the financial crisis of 2008-09 to illustrate the benefits of an eclectic approach that takes seriously the roles of constitutive institutions and practices and the social devices that people rely on to make decisions in the face of uncertainty. The biblical fat seven years are over. The United States is entering hard times (Gourevitch 1986). There is no better guide for understanding this new era than to reexamine Peter Gourevitch’s land-mark book on the same subject, first published a quarter of a century ago. Throughout his career Gourevitch (2009) has always pushed for analysis that looked at the domestic rather than the international systemic determinants of politics. He does not deny the important macro-imbalances that have contributed to the financial crisis of 2008, such as the explosion of trade and budget deficits in the U.S. and China’s willingness and ability to finance them with the result of creating booming
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it