Bibliographic record
Abstract
GLERL’s AHPS consists of daily runoff models for each of the 121 watersheds, lake thermodynamic models for each of the seven water bodies, hydraulic models for the four connecting channels and five water body outflow points with operating plans encoded for Lakes Superior and Ontario, and simultaneous water balances on all the lakes. It is described in detailed overviews elsewhere (Croley 2003, 2005). 1.1 Runoff GLERL’s Large Basin Runoff Model (LBRM) consists of moisture storages arranged as a serial and parallel cascade of “tanks ” coinciding with the upper and lower soil zones, a groundwater zone, and the surface channel system (Croley 2002). Water enters the snow pack, which supplies the basin surface (degree-day snowmelt). Infiltration is proportional to this supply and to saturation of the upper soil zone (partial-area infiltration). Water percolates from the upper to the lower soil zone tank and from the lower to the groundwater zone tank (deep percolation). Water also flows from the upper, lower, and groundwater zone tanks into the surface channel system, as surface runoff, interflow, and groundwater flow respectively. Flows from all tanks are proportional to their amounts (linear-reservoir flows). Evapotranspiration is proportional to available water and to sensible heat (a complementary concept in that evapotranspiration reduces available sensible heat). Mass conservation applies for the snow pack and tanks; energy conservation applies to evapotranspiration. Complete analytical solutions exist. The model has been calibrated to each of the 121 watersheds contributing to the Great Lakes by minimizing root mean square error between daily model outflows and adjusted outflow observations. Each calibration determined parameters for infiltration, snow melt, surface runoff, percolation, interflow, deep percolation, groundwater flow, surface storage, and evapotranspiration from all moisture storages by systematically searching the parameter space (with a gradient-search technique). The model agrees quite well with weekly and monthly observations (Croley 2002, 2003). These parameters represent present-day hydrology and are not changed in the simulations. All 121 model applications are used in the simulations.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.065 | 0.025 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".