OECD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK PRELIMINARY EDITION CHAPTER 1 GENERAL ASSESSMENT OF THE MACROECONOMIC SITUATION
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The recovery is strengthening albeit slowly and unevenly Overview The global recovery has become increasingly widespread over the past year, despite progressing at variable speeds across countries and regions. Global output growth is expected to be around 4 per cent this year and in 2011, above the growth rate experienced in the decade prior to the onset of the crisis (Table 1.1). In the non-OECD economies, especially in Asia, the recovery is likely to remain buoyant, with the strong macroeconomic policy response to the financial crisis being rolled back only gradually, and a limited direct exposure to the crisis itself and to the associated lingering effects. Sustaining and broadening the recovery is proving somewhat more challenging in many OECD economies, despite the favourable backdrop from strong external demand, the progressive, if fragile, normalisation of financial conditions and the effects of strong, albeit diminishing, macroeconomic policy stimulus. Headwinds stem from the legacies of the crisis, such as weak private and public balance sheets, high unemployment and the increasingly urgent need for fiscal consolidation. The annual rate of output growth in the OECD area is expected to be around 2 per cent over the year to the fourth quarter of 2010, and to strengthen a little further to 3 per cent over 2011. Growth should remain more robust in the United States, and Asia-Pacific countries with strong trade linkages to the non-OECD economies, than elsewhere. Table 1.1. A gradual recovery from widespread recession OECD area, unless noted otherwise
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.004 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.006 | 0.014 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.005 | 0.003 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.083 | 0.074 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".