Assessing Linkages in the International Banking System with Market Data
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the Bank of Canada. This paper uses the co-movement of security returns and cluster analysis to assess linkages in the international banking system. We find that linkages between large internationally active financial institutions, and between countries ’ banking systems more generally, appear to be tightening over time. Canada’s closest link is with the U.S, and this link is also strengthening over time. The results are consistent with the increasing international expansion of large financial institutions geographically and through market activities, which has implications for Canadian and international financial system stability. This paper uses a number of metrics. First based on analysis using correlation of stock returns we show that although national groupings still dominate, there is a noticeable shift to more interdependent banking systems. Our analysis suggests closer international ties among the financial institutions and financial systems in our sample. The methodology used here also reveals groupings
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.006 | 0.032 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.013 | 0.022 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.003 | 0.003 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".