SOME UNPLEASANT AMERICAN ARITHMETIC
Bibliographic record
Abstract
wynne godley Is it sufficiently realized how intractable those U.S. imbalances—and how dangerous their potential consequences at home and abroad—have now become? Recall first that, as all students of the national income know, the deficit of the general government (federal, state, and local) is everywhere and always equal (by definition) to the current account deficit plus the private sector balance (the excess of private saving over investment). In the first quarter of 2005, the deficit in the U.S. balance of trade—the difference between exports and imports—was 5.7 percent of GDP, implying that the current account deficit, which includes both the trade deficit and certain forms of cross-border income, was at least 6 percent. In the absence of major policy changes (and assuming output growth is sustained), many people think that the current account deficit will increase further during the next four years. Suppose optimistically, however, that the deficit remains at 6 percent while output growth remains high enough to stop unemployment from rising. The private sector balance was negative 2.2 percent in the first quarter of 2005—some 4 percent below its long-term average—mainly because there has been a furious housing boom
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.007 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.006 | 0.005 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.004 | 0.007 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Research integrity | 0.002 | 0.006 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.047 | 0.014 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".