Parabolic Projection of World Conventional Oil Production Based upon Year 2000 Assessment of the U.S
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The world production of conventional oil was projected parabolically using preliminary data posted on the Web by the U.S. Geological Survey in advance of the formal publication of the Year 2000 Assessment (DDS-60) of undiscovered oil resources. This major study was released at the time of the 16th World Petroleum Congress held in Calgary, Alberta, 11-15 June 2000. This technique was employed to estimate the timing and magnitude of the peak in conventional oil production for the world as a whole. The Mean Value of the assessment was employed in the parabolic calculation to derive two boundary cases due to the uncertainty concerning a large quantity of oil termed ‘reserves addition. ’ Oil in this category was assumed to contribute to output only after the peak has passed at one extreme (Case 1) and to be continuously available throughout the production period at the other (Case 2). The actual production is likely to lie between these limiting cases. In two sensitivity tests, oil production based on the smaller oil resources at 95 % probability was calculated in Case 3 and the larger resources at 5 % probability in Case 4 which represent two extremes of the assessment values. In Case 1, world conventional oil production peaked at 29.38
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".