Associateship Examinations Exam 1 Probability
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Exam 1 is a three-hour, multiple-choice examination that is administered by Preliminary Actuarial Examinations/SOA and is identical to SOA Exam P. The examination is jointly sponsored and administered by the CAS, SOA, and the Canadian Institute of Actuaries (CIA). The examination is also jointly sponsored by the American Academy of Actuaries (AAA) and the Conference of Consulting Actuaries (CCA). Exam 1 is administered as a computer-based test. For additional details, please refer to “Computer-Based Testing Rules and Procedures." The purpose of the syllabus for this examination is to develop a knowledge of the fundamental probability tools for quantitatively assessing risk. The application of these tools to problems encountered in actuarial science is emphasized. A thorough command of the supporting calculus is assumed. Additionally, a very basic knowledge of insurance and risk management is assumed. A table of values for the normal distribution is available below for download and will be included with the examination. Since the table will be included with the examination, candidates will not be allowed to bring copies of the table into the examination room. Please check the “Syllabus Updates ” section of the CAS Web Site for any changes to the exam or
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.007 | 0.006 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.005 | 0.002 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; both teacher heads agree on what is shown here.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".