2.c.1 Will any future increase in freshwater efflux from the Arctic pass west or east of Greenland (Q10 Annex A)?
Bibliographic record
Abstract
General idea and importance: There are two major freshwater pathways from the Arctic Ocean to the subpolar North Atlantic, namely Fram Strait and the passages through the Canadian Arctic Archipelago (CAA). Fram Strait today carries roughly equal amounts of freshwater in liquid and solid form while the export through the CAA is mostly liquid freshwater. With increasing atmospheric freshwater transport to high latitudes we expect increasing precipitation and continental run-off into the Arctic Ocean. At the same time, sea ice thickness is expected to decrease. Thus, an increase in the liquid freshwater storage and export are expected, whereas the solid freshwater export is expected to decrease. For current conditions, sea ice export from the Arctic is highly asymmetric with most of the export taking place through Fram Strait and very little through the narrow passages of the CAA where sea ice tends to be blocked, at least in winter. Although the CAA is so much shallower than Fram Strait, observational estimates hint at roughly equal liquid freshwater transports along both pathways. With decreasing sea ice export a relative reduction in the importance of Fram Strait in exporting freshwater from the Arctic is possible. The shift from solid to liquid
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.044 | 0.007 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".