www.td.com/economics WILL THE U.S. DOLLAR GO THE WAY OF THE BRITISH POUND?
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Since 2002, the value of the U.S. dollar has been on a downward trajectory – declining by over 27 % in real (inflation adjusted) terms, and 33 % in nominal terms against several major currencies on a trade-weighted basis. The depreciation has been fairly broadly-based, with sizeable nominal declines being posted in the value of the greenback against all seven major currencies; including the Australian dollar (41%), the British pound (24%), the Canadian dollar (34%), the European euro (41%), the Japanese yen (18%), the Swedish krona (40%) and the Swiss franc (35%). On a more broadly-based measure, the FRB Broad Index (which captures the value of the dollar against 26 world currencies) has fallen by 24 % in nominal terms and by 22 % in real terms. The list of factors exerting the downward pressure on the greenback is long, and growing. Not least among them are the huge (and growing) public sector debt and the worsening national indebtedness position. In addition to
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.003 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.361 | 0.178 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".