Government Debt Spillovers in a Federation*
Bibliographic record
Abstract
This paper presents estimates of the impact of debt issued by one government in a monetary union on the yields of bonds issued by other governments in the union. These debt spillovers may occur if there is a risk of monetary accommodation, implicit or explicit inter-jurisdictional bailout provisions, or interdependent revenue sources. The analysis empirically distinguishes between two channels through which debt spillovers may affect bond yields: currency depreciation risk and default risk. Data on the yields of individual Canadian provincial government bonds for the period 1983-2003 are employed. No evidence is found of debt spillover effects between provinces, but a 1 percentage point increase in the central government’s debt to GDP ratio raises the yield on provincial government bonds by 4.3 basis points — 3.0 basis points by increasing the expected depreciation rate of the Canadian dollar and 1.3 basis points by raising the risk of provincial government default. These results imply that a rise in the Canadian central government debt to GDP ratio from.25 to.58, equivalent to the rise that occurred between 1983 and 1995, would lead to an increase in provincial government bond yields of 142 basis points.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.005 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.004 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".