Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Andolfatto and Gomme (2003) find evidence that Canadian monetary policy appears to alternate between high and low money growth rate regimes, and that private-sector belief formation over these unobserved regimes could induce significant persistence in the propagation of monetary policy shocks. In this paper, we examine the sensitivity of these conclusions by re-estimating the data allowing for the possibility of multiple regimes. In doing so, we find evidence of three (rather than two) distinct monetary policy regimes. In particular, we find that one policy regime is characterized by high money growth with moderate variability. The other two policy regimes are characterized by a common low money growth rate; they are distinguished primarily by their variability (high and low). A simulation exercise based on our three-regime model reveals an improvement in accounting for the behavior of the Canadian economy over some episodes; notably, the sharp increase in interest rates and the curtailment of economic activity in the early 1980s.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.013 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.003 | 0.004 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.003 | 0.002 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.550 | 0.334 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; the direct Gemma label and the distilled Codex classifier agree on what is shown here.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".