Current Account Sustainability in Seven Developed Countries
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract. This paper is an attempt to examine the G-7 sustainability properties of current accounts of seven developed countries, using a methodology based on fractional processes. The purpose of this study is to test for the sustainability of current account deficits in seven developed countries for the 1974:1-2001:3 period. The results indicate that all countries ’ current account is covariance non-stationary and three countries ’ (France, Italy and Canada) current accounts are mean reverting so that they are sustainable in the long run, while those of Germany, UK, US and Japan are not mean reverting and are unsustainable. These results should also signal a warning to creditors and policymakers, unless there are policy distortions or permanent productivity shocks to the domestic economies. Furthermore, persistent deficits may lead to increased domestic interest rates to attract foreign capital and, in addition to this, the accumulation of external debt owing to persistent deficits will imply increasing interest payments that impose an excess burden on future generations.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.004 | 0.005 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".