Public Pensions – Canadian Analyses Based on the LifePaths Generational Accounting Framework”, paper prepared for the Nordic Microsimulation Workshop
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Public pensions in Canada, as in many countries, continue to be questioned in terms of their long-term fiscal sustainability, particularly given forecasts of demographic aging. As a result, a variety of reforms have been adopted or proposed, including privatisation. Privatisation of the public earnings-related pension, an option more actively discussed south of our border, is an option potentially with multiple layers of behavioural and/or institutional response. This paper examines several such layers – involving broad equity and bond market volatility, performance characteristics of mutual fund markets and individual risk aversion (or its complement represented as active trading). These are considered in a Canadian context using LifePaths GA (Generational Accounting), an overlapping generations microanalytic simulation model. The results suggest that privatisation of the public earnings-related pension could realistically result in reduced rates of return relative to the status quo. Comparisons among alternative scenarios indicate that inequalities generated by market volatility could be of a scale that would create public policy concerns.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.007 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".