Bibliographic record
Abstract
Nonlinear projections (NLP) of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) index onto North American winter (December–March) 500-mb geopotential height (Z500) and surface air temperature (SAT) anomalies reveal a pronounced asymmetry in the atmospheric patterns associated with positive and negative phases of the AO. In a linear view, the Z500 anomaly field associated with positive AO resembles a positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) pattern with statistically significant positive and negative anomalies stretching zonally into central-eastern USA and Canada respectively, resulting in a cold climate anomaly over northeastern and eastern Canada, Alaska and the west coast of USA, and a warm climate anomaly over the rest of the continent. By contrast, the nonlinear behavior, mainly a quadratic association with AO, which is most apparent when the amplitude of the AO index is large, has the same spatial pattern and sign for both positive and negative values of the index. The nonlinear pattern reveals negative Z500 anomalies over the west coast of USA and the North Atlantic and positive Z500 anomalies at higher latitudes centered over the Gulf of Alaska and northeastern Canada accompanied by cooler than normal climate over the USA and southwestern Canada and warmer than normal climate over other regions of the continent.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.010 | 0.002 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".