Not for Citation Without Permission of the Authors
Bibliographic record
Abstract
This paper uses new microdata to examine competing explanations of the current crisis in Thailand. The paper presents the survey results of 1200 manufacturing firms interviewed in the last quarter of 1997 and the first quarter of 1998. The evidence shows that firms responded to the incentives generated by poor policies and built up increasingly vulnerable positions. Firms had risky financial positions, financing long-term investment with large amounts of short-term debt and sometimes with open foreign exchange positions. Before the onset of the crisis, profits were declining yet investments kept growing. By 1996 there was a tremendous increase in investment, but all too often in the `wrong capital stock'. The paper also examines firm reactions to the crisis and the constraints they face in the recovery period. Firm responses show only weak support of a credit crunch story; restricted access to credit is dwarfed by the inability to sell goods due to the fall in demand. Firms also report significant structural impediments to an export-led recovery
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.008 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.007 | 0.010 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.003 | 0.002 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.648 | 0.604 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; the direct Gemma label and the distilled Codex classifier agree on what is shown here.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".