The Prospects for Petroleum Output and Investment in MENA Oil Exporting Countries, 2005-2030 For the Middle East Economic Association Meetings in Chicago; January, 2007.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Intro: Is it likely that the output of petroleum will expand sufficiently during the next quarter century, that its inflation adjusted price will stay relatively constant? How much investment funds will be necessary for the corresponding expansion in capacity? The demand side of this question is well understood, although recently practitioners had underestimated the expansion of consumption in China, India, and the U.S. However, there are several aspects of the supply side that are less understood, such as the impact of new technology, the potential for discoveries of new reserves, and the control over output exercised by OPEC. The reader frequently encounters predictions that non-OPEC will reach its maximum output within a decade, but there is rather less agreement on what to expect from the OPEC countries. Current Projections There are several efforts at predicting the future of the oil industry, in terms of identifying various scenarios: by governmental agencies, oil companies, and consultants, and in fact an appreciable amount is available on the web--both the projections themselves, and conferences dedicated to the subject.1 The two most widely cited sets of annual studies
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.011 | 0.002 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".