Canada’s retirement system: Prepared for an aging population?
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Canada confronts an aging population in the form of the baby-boomers’retirement, an ever increasing lifespan and low past and current birth rates. The retirement system currently consists of a classical earnings based portion, the Canada/Quebec Pension Plan (CPP), and a pure transfer portion, the Old-Age-Security program (OAS). The paper evaluates …nancial and welfare consequences of di¤erent retirement reforms that include a debt funded privatization of the CPP, as well as the evaluation of the pre-funding policy that overtaxes current generations to keep the CPP …nancially stable. The analysis is done in a general equilibrium lifecycle model with endogenous savings, labour supply and human capital accumulation. The model is calibrated to match important characteristics of the Canadian social security system and economy. The paper …nds that despite the fact that the CPP is well funded until 2075, privatization is Pareto improving relative to the current pre-funding arrangement. Pre-funding is found to be welfare decreasing for the current generations, though successful in attaining …nancial stability. The OAS program will require attention by 2020 and either a large funding increase or a bene…t reduction.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.004 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.003 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.005 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".