Welfare Costs of Border Delays: Numerical Calculations From a Canadian Regional Trade Model∗
Bibliographic record
Abstract
This paper provides a quantitative assessment of the welfare costs of border delays as a result of recent increases in post 9/11 se-curity measures. Although bilateral trade with the United States ranks high in both volumes and political context, we widen our scope by considering border delays in trade with all countries in the rest of the world. The focus of the paper is on the provincial and sector allocation of the burden of border delays using a static regional computable general equilibrium model of Canada. Prelim-inary simulation results indicate that all regions in Canada could incur significant welfare losses ranging from $5.5 to $13 billion from increases in transport costs in both merchandise and service trade. In particular, Ontario stands out with the heaviest burden in the country. Our analysis suggests that border delays are impor-tant to Canada to warrant further investigations, and the modeling approach outlined in this paper could provide a venue to quantify these costs.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".