Interest rate linkages: a Kalman filter approach to detecting structural change”, Imperial College Management School Working Papers
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
This paper investigates changes in the causal structure linking the G-7 short-term rates by estimating time-varying speed of adjustment coefficients in error correction equations using a Kalman filter approach. This technique allows us to detect structural breaks in the causal linkages that generate the cointegrating relations between the series. The testable hypotheses are the US world-wide leadership, the disengagement of UK monetary policy from those pursued in the Eurozone after the collapse of the ERM, and the German leadership hypothesis (GLH) within the European Union (EU). The evidence points to a break in the causal linkages between the UK and other EU countries after the third-fourth quarter of 1992. The empirical results are also consistent with a US world-wide leadership and a weak German leadership within the Eurozone.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it