A Causal Event History Approach to Interdependent Processes
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Recently, the western world has witnessed among young cohorts a significant rise in both cohabitation and out of wedlock births as well as an increasingly complex relationship between marriage and childbirth. This study follows previous investigations conducted by Blossfeld and colleagues (1999) on the experience of pregnancy within cohabiting unions and how it conditions the likelihood of transition to formal marriage with the same partners. A hazard model with time-varying covariates is specified explicitly as time-dependent, with entry into first marriage as the dependent process and first pregnancy/birth as the explaining process. Our conceptual framework relies on the rational actor theory, which proposes that normguided and rational self-centred behaviour co-exist in the case when a pregnancy occurs in a consensual union and a decision is to be made by the couple with respect to marriage or non-marriage. Our test of this interrelated process is based on the experiences of Canada, Latvia, and the Netherlands. Findings suggest that the interdependencies of cohabitation, pregnancy, and marriage fit the model and are generally uniform processes across these societies. Slight country differences are attributed to attitudes and policies regarding cohabitation versus marriage and the acceptability of out of wedlock births.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.007 | 0.018 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.004 | 0.003 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.005 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.004 | 0.007 |
| Open science | 0.004 | 0.003 |
| Research integrity | 0.003 | 0.004 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.020 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".