the Robustness of Cross-Province Panel Studies
Bibliographic record
Abstract
A series of papers have established that minimum wages have negative employment effects on teenagers in Canada. All of these papers use panel data methodology, and most use pooled provincial time series data. Implicit in the panel-data methodology are restrictive assumptions: first, about the structure of time and province unobserved effects; and second, on the stability of the regression coefficients both over time and across provinces. Although we find the negative employment effect to be robust to changes in lag structure and the inclusion of a range of additional variables, our main finding is that the implicit assumptions underlying the use of the panel-data methodology are soundly rejected. The marked non-robustness of the results to the relaxation of these fundamental assumptions calls into question the validity of the negative employment effect of minimum wages that has been found in most of the Canadian literature. 2 I.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.065 | 0.200 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.002 | 0.004 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.003 | 0.006 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.004 | 0.002 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.004 | 0.002 |
| Open science | 0.005 | 0.004 |
| Research integrity | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.015 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".