Perspectives on Household Balance Sheets Housing Crash Continues to Overshadow
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The average young family—which we define as a single- or multi-person family unit headed by someone under 40—has recovered only about one-third of the wealth it lost during the financial crisis and recession. The average wealth of middle-aged families (ages 40 to 61) and older families (ages 62 or older) has recov-ered to about its precrisis level. The main reason young families’ balance-sheet recovery lags is the recent housing crash and its lingering effects. The homeownership rate among younger families has plunged, reflecting both the loss of many homes through foreclosure or other distressed sales and delayed entry into homeownership among newly formed households. The house-price gains that have helped mainly older families to rebuild homeowners ’ equity have been overshadowed among younger families by the ongoing retreat from homeownership. Young Families ’ Wealth Remains Far below the Precrisis Level The average inflation-adjusted (real) wealth of a young family was about $108,000 at the end of the third quarter of 2013, based on our estimates.1 The average real wealth of a family headed by someone between 40 and 61 was about $691,000, while the average real wealth of a family headed by someone aged 62 or older was about $928,000.2 Figure 1 displays the average wealth for families in each age category at three-year intervals beginning in 1989, when our data begin. To more easily compare percentage changes over time, Figure 2 re-scales the level of average real net worth for families in each age group to equal 100 in 2007. The very large percentage decline in aver-age wealth among young families between
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.004 | 0.004 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.012 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".