Gross Private Domestic Investment
Bibliographic record
Abstract
dimitri b. papadimitriou, greg hannsgen, and michalis nikiforos 1 Growth has been anemic since the recession’s end. According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the US economy grew reasonably each quarter from the end of the recession in 2009 until 2012Q4, when growth of real GDP slowed to.1 percent. Many economists and commentators have argued that this figure represents only a temporary drop, though vigorous growth—say, 4 percent or so on average in real terms—shows no sign of being at hand. This report argues that the shallow recovery may, indeed, continue through 2014 and beyond. But with the private sector still indebted and deleveraging, satisfactory growth in the medium term cannot be achieved without a major, sustained, and discontinuous increase in either government spending or net export demand, or both. If we were to rely on an increase in net exports, it is doubtful that this would happen soon enough; and if it were to happen, the decrease in the domestic absorption of goods and services by the United States would put deflationary pressure on US trading partners. We make no short-term forecast. Instead, we use the Levy Institute’s macroeconometric model,
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.003 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.066 | 0.126 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".