A ‘Natural Experiment ’ on the Economics of Storks: Evidence on the Impact of Differential Family Policy on Fertility Rates in
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The financial support of the CQRS Fund is gratefully acknowledged. The views expressed herein are those of the authors and do not reflect the opinions of Human Resources Development Canada. Résumé: À partir de 1986, le gouvernement du Québec a mis graduellement en place une série de mesures de soutien financier en faveur des familles (allocations universel les jeunes enfants et de naissance modulées selon le rang de naissances, crédit d’impôt et réduction d’impôt famille) afin de renverser la baisse importante de la fécondité. Durant la même période, le gouvernement fédéral réduisait son soutien financier à l’égard des familles. Ce changement de politique familiale provinciale unique au Québec offre une “expérience naturelle ” permettant de mesurer l’effet des transferts et de la fiscalité sur la fcondité. Plusieurs types de données et de méthodes d’analyse sont utilisées pour identifier “l’effet traitement” de la politique au Québec. D’abord, les naissances selon le rang, l’année et l’âge de la mère pour le Québec et le Reste du Canada (RdC), permettent de distinguer, à l’aide de la formule proposée par Bongaarts-Feeney, l’effet de tempo de l’effet de quantum qui peuvent être associées aux changements de fécondité.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.016 | 0.021 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.004 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.014 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".