162 The Economic Consequences of Quebec Sovereignty Notes 1. U.S. concerns in trade negotiations with a sovereign Quebec are dis-
Bibliographic record
Abstract
2. Based on past recessions, the real output loss from the loss of confidence likely to be triggered by Quebec sovereignty could easily be in the range of 2.5 to 5 percent of GDP for Quebec and 2 to 3 percent of GDP for the rest of Canada. This range for the decline in output is based notionally on the 1981-82and 1990-91 recessions. Another " way of looking at it is that interest rates could rise by some 4 percentage points to stem capital outflows. The average impact of a 1 percentage point decrease in interest rates simulated with 9 ( macroeconomic models at a conference of model-builders was an increase in GDP of 0.2 percent in year 1 and 0.6 percent in year 3 (O'Reilly, 1983 and background papers). Assuming the impact of an increase in interest rates is the same magnitude and of opposite sign to a decrease and that model responses are linear, the impact of a 4 percentage point increase in interest rates would be a reduc-tion of 0.8 percent in output in year 1 and 2.4 percent in year 3. To
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.004 | 0.002 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.005 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.038 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".