ORIGINAL PAPER The fall migration flyways of monarch butterflies in eastern North America revealed by citizen scientists
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract The migration of monarch butterflies (Danaus plexippus) from Canada and the United States to over-wintering sites in Mexico is one of the world’s most amazing biological phenomena, although recent threats make it imperative that the resources needed by migrating monarchs be conserved. The most important first step in preserving migration resources—determining the migration flyways—is also the most challenging because of the large-scale nature of the migration. Prior attempts to determine the flyways using mark-recapture techniques with wing tags gave some clues, but this important information has never been fully obtainable until now. In 2005 the citizen-science program, Journey North, initiated a project that asked participants to record sightings of overnight roosts of monarchs during their fall migration, and this project now provides an ideal way to illustrate the flyways used by monarchs on their way to Mexico, with the assumption that roost locations indicate migration routes. We used 3 years of this data to elucidate the flyways on a continent-wide scale, that revealed two distinct flyways, but only one appears to lead directly to Mexico. This main, ‘central’ flyway begins in the American Midwest states and southern Ontario, then continues south-southwest through the states
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".