The Gains from Credible Inflation Targeting
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The Bank of Canada, like all other inflation-targeting central banks, regularly publishes an Inflation Report and has made transparency of policy-making a key feature of the inflation targeting policy adopted since 1991. What is the relevance of the Bank of Canada’s credibility as inflation-targeter to the economy stabilization attained in the last decade? This paper discusses how agents ’ expectations about monetary policy affect the outcome of an inflation targeting regime. I build the counterfactual path of the Canadian Economy since 1991 under the assumption that the policy regime shift announced by the monetary authority was not believed by the public. In this way it is possible to quantitatively evaluate how much the change in the behaviour of the interest rate (a shift in policy) accounted for the inflation stabilization since 1991, and how much of the inflation stabilization is instead owed to the credible announcement of an inflation target (a shift in the policy rule).
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.009 | 0.070 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.004 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.005 | 0.003 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Research integrity | 0.003 | 0.004 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.009 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".