Vertical Trade, Asymmetric Exchange Rate Pass-Through, and Canada’s Exchange Rate Regime
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The recent sharp appreciation of the Canadian dollar vs. the US dollar poses difficulties for the Canadian economy and reignites the debate as to whether Canada should fix the Canadian dollar to the US dollar by implementing a unilateral peg or forming a monetary union. We compare the welfare of different combinations of monetary and currency policies in an open-economy macroeconomic model that incorporates two unique features of the Canadian economy: the high level of vertical trade with the US and the prevalent use of the US dollar as the invoicing currency for both imports and exports. This comparison generates two insights about the exchange rate regime of Canada. First, the vertical trade makes it more difficult for a flexible exchange rate to balance the Canadian economy by adjusting relative prices. The higher degree of economic integration resulting from the vertical production and trade favors a fixed exchange rate regime or a single currency. Second, because Canadian firms often use the US dollar as the invoicing currency for both imports and exports, they undertake most of the currency risk. Relative to other countries with a flexible exchange rate regime, in particular the US, Canada is more exposed to currency fluctuations, which leads to a higher cost of a flexible exchange rate regime in Canada.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.004 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.005 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".