Presented at Retirement Implications of Demographic and Family Change Symposium Sponsored by the Society of Actuaries
Bibliographic record
Abstract
This paper explores the relationship between the Wealth Transfer Index (WTI), a statistic defined by Brown and Bilodeau (1999), and retirement age, which is the age at which the workers in an economy cease to be economically productive. Appropriately expressed as ratio of consumption demand to labor productivity, the WTI is a barometer for the demand for wealth placed on the workers of an economy. This paper explains why a relationship between this statistic and retirement age must exist. Using Canadian historical median retirement age data compiled by Statistics Canada and calculated values of the WTI for the same period, three linear regression models are fitted. The conclusion from this analysis is that there is a strong positive correlation between the WTI and average retirement age. This paper also briefly looks at the well-documented demographic shift expected to occur in Canada because of the baby boom-baby bust tidal wave. The aged dependency ratio is expected to increase dramatically, reaching 45 % in
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.003 | 0.004 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.003 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.003 | 0.002 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.074 | 0.008 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".