AI-Driven Carbon Monitoring: Transformer-Based Reconstruction of Atmospheric CO2 in Canadian Poultry Regions
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Accurate mapping of column-averaged CO2 (XCO2) over agricultural landscapes is essential for guiding emission mitigation strategies. We present a Spatiotemporal Vision Transformer with Wavelets (ST-ViWT) framework that reconstructs continuous, uncertainty-quantified XCO2 fields from OCO-2 across southern Canada, emphasizing poultry-intensive regions. The model fuses wavelet time-frequency representations with transformer attention over meteorology, vegetation indices, topography, and land cover. On 2024 OCO-2 data, ST-ViWT attains R2 = 0.984 and RMSE = 0.468 ppm; 92.3 percent of gap-filled predictions lie within +/-1 ppm. Independent validation with TCCON shows robust generalization (bias = -0.14 ppm; r = 0.928), including faithful reproduction of the late-summer drawdown. Spatial analysis across 14 poultry regions reveals a moderate positive association between facility density and XCO2 (r = 0.43); high-density areas exhibit larger seasonal amplitudes (9.57 ppm) and enhanced summer variability. Compared with conventional interpolation and standard machine-learning baselines, ST-ViWT yields seamless 0.25 degree CO2 surfaces with explicit uncertainties, enabling year-round coverage despite sparse observations. The approach supports integration of satellite constraints with national inventories and precision livestock platforms to benchmark emissions, refine region-specific factors, and verify interventions. Importantly, transformer-based Earth observation enables scalable, transparent, spatially explicit carbon accounting, hotspot prioritization, and policy-relevant mitigation assessment.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".