Unipolarity, Grand Strategy, and the Economics Security Trade-Off
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract A decade after Nuno Monteiro’s Theory of Unipolar Politics (TUP) appeared, major developments, from renewed great power rivalry to Russia’s war in Ukraine to the unraveling of the open international economic system, seem to contradict the book’s arguments. A taproot of this disjuncture is TUP’s implicit assumptions about the interaction between economics and security. We show that relaxing those assumptions exposes a complex set of interactions between unipolarity and economics–security trade-offs. We develop propositions concerning these interactions that help identify the conditions under which leading states face trade-offs between the pursuit of economic gains and security. Drawing on Monteiro’s approach, we derive a dynamic framework for understanding system incentives for the unipole’s grand strategy. This allows us to generate a typology of contemporary strategic choices, clarifying the complex debate on US grand strategy.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it