Assessing the potential spread of arthropod pests of wild and cultivated <i>Vaccinium</i> species in British Columbia using digitized occurrence records: the blackheaded fireworm <i>Rhopobota naevana</i> (Hübner, 1817) as an exemplar
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Plant species within the genus Vaccinium L. (Ericaceae)—including blueberries and their relatives—grow both naturally and as cultivated crops in British Columbia. Vaccinium cultivation is primarily undertaken in the southern areas of British Columbia, but there is growing interest in cultivating Vaccinium plants further north, particularly as the climate warms in northern parts of Canada. Vaccinium species are an important food source for humans and many other species, including insects. Much remains unclear about which insect species may pose a threat to these plants at northern latitudes, both now and in the future. We identified Vaccinium insect and other arthropod pest species through a literature review and used this list of species to inform and prioritize the collection of digitized occurrence records. We assessed the degree of risk each species poses to Vaccinium cultivation, and found that Rhopobota naevana (Hübner, 1817), the blackheaded fireworm (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae), is a Vaccinium pest of high concern in British Columbia, where it is a significant pest of cranberry. We used species distribution modelling (Maxent) to assess the distribution of R. naevana under both current and future climate change scenarios in British Columbia. Improving our understanding of pest distributions and how they may change in response to climate change is important for informing future pest risks for northern cultivation of wild Vaccinium and related crops in British Columbia and other northern regions of Canada.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.004 | 0.007 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".