Predictors of Acute and Chronic PTSD in Road Trauma Survivors: Insights from a 12-Month Cohort Study
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Somayeh Momenyan,1 Ariel Cheung,1 Herbert Chan,1,2 Lina Jae,1 John A Taylor,1 John A Staples,1,2 Devin R Harris,1 Jeffrey R Brubacher1 1Department of Emergency Medicine, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada; 2Centre for Clinical Epidemiology & Evaluation, Vancouver, BC, CanadaCorrespondence: Jeffrey R Brubacher, Department of Emergency Medicine, University of British Columbia, VGH Research Pavilion, Rm 281-828 W 10 th Avenue, Vancouver, BC, V5Z 1M9, Canada, Email jeff.brubacher@ubc.caIntroduction: The present study reports the prevalence of acute post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) symptoms (2 months post-injury) and chronic PTSD symptoms (6 and 12 months post-injury) among road trauma survivors. We also examine baseline factors as potential predictors of acute and chronic PTSD symptoms post-injury.Methods: This study followed a prospective cohort, enrolling 1480 survivors in Canada, between July 2018 and March 2020. PTSD symptoms were measured with the Post-traumatic Check-List Scale (PCL-S) at 2, 6, and 12 months post-injury. Baseline sociodemographic, psychological, medical, and injury-related factors were examined as predictors of acute and long-term PTSD symptoms using multivariable logistic regression.Results: PTSD symptoms were reported by 241 of 1074 participants (22.4%) at 2 months, 167 of 935 (17.9%) at 6 months, and 141 of 872 (16.2%) at 12 months. Female sex, Asian ethnicity, more retrospectively reported pre-injury somatic symptoms, greater pre-injury psychological distress, and being a pedestrian (vs a driver) were consistently linked to higher odds of PTSD symptoms at 2 and 6 months. At 2 months, younger age, greater pre-injury pain catastrophizing, uncertain recovery expectations, and head or spine/back injuries were additional significant predictors, while by 6 months, having neck injury remained significant. By 12 months, chronic PTSD symptoms was associated with greater pre-injury pain catastrophizing, lower pre-injury health-related quality of life, and spine/back injury. Injury pain remained a predictor across all follow-ups.Conclusion: PTSD symptom prevalence among survivors decreased between 2 and 6 months post-injury, but recovery rate slowed thereafter, with reduction between 6 and 12 months being much smaller than the earlier decrease. Furthermore, as some significant factors are modifiable, early interventions—such as effective pain management, psychological support, and coping strategy training—may help mitigate PTSD symptoms. Brief screening for psychological distress and pain catastrophizing could further support timely identification and referral of high-risk patients.Keywords: road trauma injury, post-traumatic stress disorder, cohort study
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".