The Importance of Diagnostic Expectations in Open Economies
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
We develop and estimate a parsimonious New-Keynesian small open-economy model that incorporates Diagnostic Expectations (DE)—a behavioral alternative to Rational Expectations (RE). Under DE, agents systematically overreact to new information, generating additional endogenous volatility. Our empirical analysis provides robust support for the DE framework: it fits Canadian data significantly better than the nested RE benchmark and improves forecasts of key macroeconomic variables, including real GDP growth, even during crises such as the Global Financial Crisis. These gains arise because DE reshapes the transmission of shocks, amplifying their effects and strengthening the exchange-rate channel of monetary policy. As a result, the relative importance of structural shocks shifts—with greater roles for supply shocks—and policymakers face a meaningfully worse inflation–output volatility trade-off. Taken together, our results highlight the relevance of behavioral expectations for open-economy dynamics and policy design.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it