The “Jewish Vote” in Canada’s 2025 Federal General Election
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Contrary to widespread opinion, Jewish voting patterns are not governed solely or sometimes even mainly by the commonly perceived ethno-religious interests of Jews, such as support for Israel and opposition to antisemitism. They are also governed by the same social forces that affect all Canadians. Focusing exclusively on the presumed Jewish interest underlying the Jewish vote prevents us from fully understanding why Jews vote the way they do. This paper seeks to demonstrate as much by examining trends in Jewish voting patterns over time and analyzing the factors that led some Jews to vote Liberal and others to vote Conservative in the 2025 federal general election. Along the way, it also examines the degree to which the Jewish vote helped to elect Jewish candidates. The paper is based mainly on the 2025 Canadian Jewish Voter Study, a web panel survey of five hundred Canadian Jewish adults that was in the field April 15–25, 2025, days before the April 28, 2025, federal general election.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.005 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it