Functional Outcome Prediction in Young Adults With Mental Health Symptoms Using Machine Learning and Large Language Models: Longitudinal Observational Study
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Background: Functional impairments associated with mental health conditions are on the rise. Predicting functional outcomes may improve the targeting of preventive interventions. While prognostic models have primarily focused on psychosis, early recognition services require a transdiagnostic approach. Objective: This study aimed to predict global functioning within a 2-year follow-up using baseline clinical and structural magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) data in a population-based sample of young, help-seeking individuals presenting with affective and anxiety symptoms as well as attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder. Methods: We classified 357 help-seeking individuals aged 18-35 years recruited from 9 sites as "impaired" (Global Assessment of Functioning [GAF] ≤60; n=228) or "nonimpaired" (GAF>60; n=129) at year 1 and/or year 2 follow-up. GAF classification group status at follow-up was predicted using linear support vector machine (SVM), decision tree, and large language model (LLM) Llama-3 using clinical assessments and/or structural MRI. Leave-one-site-out (SVM) or external sample (LLM) was used for validation. Results: SVM achieved balanced accuracy of 69.2% using clinical features only. Items related to baseline occupational functioning, interpersonal relationships, cognitive functioning, psychotic and affective symptoms, as well as the presence of anxiety disorder, were most predictive. The decision tree further reduced the feature set to 5 predictive items, achieving balanced accuracy of 76.6%. Although amygdala and hippocampal subregions achieved balanced accuracy of 57.1%, structural MRI did not improve the overall prediction. Llama-3 performed comparably well to SVM (balanced accuracy of 72.6%). Conclusions: Machine learning demonstrated good performance in predicting global functioning. Interestingly, the out-of-the-box LLM performed comparably well without being trained or fine-tuned, highlighting the potential of leveraging free-text data for mental health prognosis.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.003 | 0.006 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".