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ARIMA model.

2025· article· W7111179279 on OpenAlexaboutno aff

Bibliographic record

VenueFigshare · 2025
Typearticle
Language
FieldMedicine
TopicCOVID-19 Impact on Reproduction
Canadian institutionsnot available
Fundersnot available
KeywordsPregnancyPandemicLive birthBirth rateCohort studyPopulationRetrospective cohort studyCohort

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

<div> Objectives To investigate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic’s onset on clinical and demographic characteristics, pregnancy complications, and monthly conception rates resulting in births through spontaneous conceptions and in-vitro fertilization (IVF) in British Columbia (BC), Canada. Materials and methods This retrospective population-based cohort study examined individuals who gave birth (both live births and stillbirths) in BC between June 1, 2010, and March 31, 2021, with estimated conception dates from January 1, 2010 to June 30, 2020. Data were obtained from the BC Perinatal Data Registry. Two groups were identified based on the estimated conception date: the pre-pandemic conception group (conception from January-1–2010 to February-29–2020) and the pandemic conception group (conception from March-1–2020 to June-30–2020). A time series forecasting method (ARIMA) was employed to observe trends in conception rates during the study period. Results 304,244 individuals with pregnancies resulting in live births or stillbirths during the study period were evaluated. A total of 429,843 such conceptions were included in the study: 417,753 (97.2%) occurring before the onset of the pandemic and 12,090 (2.8%) in the pandemic period. In June 2020, conceptions resulting in births decreased by 26.6% compared with June 2019. Trends in conceptions resulting in live births were similar, with a conception rate of 235.2 per 100,000 women of reproductive age in June 2020, compared with the expected rate of 305.0 per 100,000. In March 2020, 0.5% of conceptions that resulted in births ended in stillbirths, compared to 1.7% in March 2019. IVF conceptions ending in births declined during the pandemic, dropping to 2.5 and 2.8 per 100,000 in March and April 2020, respectively, compared with the expected 13.1 per 100,000. However, by June 2020, these rates began to recover toward the expected levels. Rates of gestational diabetes mellites (GDM), gestational hypertension (GHTN), and postpartum intensive care unit (ICU) admissions were similar before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. Conclusions During the challenging period of the COVID-19 pandemic in BC, couples may have chosen to delay conception. Rates of conceptions resulting in stillbirths remained relatively unchanged. IVF conception rates were impacted by the suspension of elective procedures. Preterm birth rates slightly exceeded expected levels but remained within normal fluctuations, and small increases in GDM and GHTN prevalence were also observed. </div>

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame distilled prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.000
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.012
Version: codex-gemma-dda1882f352aValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesMetaresearch, Meta-epidemiology (narrow), Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)
Consensus categoriesInsufficient payload (model declined to judge)
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Not applicable · Consensus signal: Not applicable
GenreCandidate signal: Dataset · Consensus signal: none
Teacher disagreement score0.765
Threshold uncertainty score1.000

Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0000.012
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0000.000
Bibliometrics0.0000.001
Science and technology studies0.0000.000
Scholarly communication0.0000.000
Open science0.0000.000
Research integrity0.0000.001
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.4290.011

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.077
GPT teacher head0.386
Teacher spread0.309 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; both teacher heads agree on what is shown here.

Study designNot applicable
Domainnot available
GenreDataset

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

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Citations0
Published2025
Admission routes1
Has abstractyes

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