A Climatology of Tropical Cyclones Impacting the Tallahassee Area and an Examination of the Large-Scale Atmospheric Patterns Producing Them
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Accurate hurricane track forecasts are important for citizens to be prepared for impacts. Since Tallahassee gets impacted by tropical cyclones relatively rarely compared to other Gulf Coast locations, it is important to be able to know when the city may be impacted. This study analyzes the climatology behind Tallahassee impacts from tropical cyclones and the Atlantic basin and hemispheric conditions from the day of landfall/closest approach to 10 days before landfall/closest approach. This study analyses the climatology of Tallahassee tropical cyclones by year and by month, the correlation to the ENSO Index, periodicity of Tallahassee-proximity storms throughout decades, how storms have the tendency to cluster in the Tallahassee region, and the different trajectories of impactful storms. Hurricanes Kate (1985), Alma (1966), and Dora (1964) were analyzed. To analyze the atmospheric conditions during the lifetimes of the Tallahassee proximity storms, the NOAA-CIRES 20th Century, ECMWF 20th Century, and ECMWF ERA5 Reanalysis Datasets provided data for tropical cyclone environments going back several decades. Overall, the synoptic pattern shown by these datasets are a 500 mb trough and ridge pattern over the northern United States, Canada, and northern Atlantic Ocean with shortwaves seen ahead of and behind the trough axis found off the Canadian coast. The 500 mb Bermuda high was also seen off the Florida coast which shrank in size and moved to the west over the life cycle of the tropical cyclones. The surface high off the northern African coast was seen weakening yet staying relatively stationary until the day of landfall/closest approach.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".