Estimating Dementia Onset: AT(N) Profiles and Predictive Modeling in Mild Cognitive Impairment Patients
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Background: Mild Cognitive Impairment (MCI) usually precedes the symptomatic phase of dementia and constitutes a window of opportunities for preventive therapies. Objectives: The objective of this study was to predict the time an MCI patient has left to reach dementia and obtain the most likely natural history in the progression of MCI towards dementia. Methods: This study was conducted on 633 MCI patients and 145 subjects with dementia through 4726 visits over 15 years from Alzheimer Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) cohort. A combination of data from AT(N) profiles at baseline and longitudinal predictive modeling was applied. A data-driven approach was proposed for categorical diagnosis prediction and timeline estimation of cognitive decline progression, which combined supervised and unsupervised learning techniques. Results: A reduced vector of only neuropsychological measures was selected for training the models. At baseline, this approach had high performance in detecting subjects at high risk of converting from MCI to dementia in the coming years. Furthermore, a Disease Progression Model (DPM) was built and also verified using three metrics. As a result of the DPM focused on the studied population, it was inferred that amyloid pathology (A+) appears about 7 years before dementia, and tau pathology (T+) and neurodegeneration (N+) occur almost simultaneously, between 3 and 4 years before dementia. In addition, MCI-A+ subjects were shown to progress more rapidly to dementia compared to MCI-A- subjects. Conclusion Based on proposed natural histories and cross-sectional and longitudinal analysis of AD markers, the results indicated that only a single cerebrospinal fluid sample is necessary during the prodromal phase of AD. Prediction from MCI into dementia and its timeline can be achieved exclusively through neuropsychological measures.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".