Wishart kernel density estimation for strongly mixing time series on the cone of positive definite matrices
Bibliographic record
Abstract
A Wishart kernel density estimator (KDE) is introduced for density estimation in the cone of positive definite matrices. The estimator is boundary-aware and mitigates the boundary bias suffered by conventional KDEs, while remaining simple to implement. Its mean squared error, uniform strong consistency on expanding compact sets, and asymptotic normality are established under the Lebesgue measure and suitable mixing conditions. This work represents the first study of density estimation for dependent data on this space under any metric. For independent observations, an asymptotic upper bound on the mean absolute error is also derived. A simulation study compares the performance of the Wishart KDE with that of the log-Gaussian KDE, another boundary-aware estimator based on the matrix-variate lognormal distribution proposed by Schwartzman [Int. Stat. Rev., 2016, 84(3), 456--486], and with the naive Gaussian KDE on the ambient Euclidean space. When estimating the stationary marginal density of a Wishart autoregressive process for several autoregressive coefficient matrices and innovation covariance matrices, the Wishart KDE exhibits the best overall accuracy and stability. The practical utility of the Wishart KDE is illustrated by estimating the marginal density of a one-year time series of realized covariance matrices computed from 5-minute intra-day returns on Amazon Corp. shares and on the Standard & Poor's 500 exchange-traded fund. All code is publicly available via the R package ksm to facilitate implementation of the method and reproducibility of the findings.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.005 | 0.024 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".