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Record W7116671298 · doi:10.1016/j.eururo.2025.12.007

Development and Validation of a Multimodal Artificial Intelligence–derived Digital Pathology–based Biomarker Predicting Metastasis Among Patients with Biochemical Recurrence After Radical Prostatectomy in NRG/RTOG Trials

2025· article· en· W7116671298 on OpenAlexaff
Todd M. Morgan, Yi Ren, Siyi Tang, Wouter Zwerink, Emmalyn Chen, Akinori Mitani, Huei–Chung Huang, Jeffry Simko, Sandy DeVries, Alan Pollack, Derek Wilke, André-Guy Martin, Alexander G. Balogh, Jeff M. Michalski, Michael J. Greenberg, Jason A. Efstathiou, Jean-Paul Bahary, Ashley E. Ross, Andre Esteva, Trevor J. Royce, Paul L. Nguyen, Karen E. Hoffman, Howard M. Sandler, P.T. Tran, Stephanie L. Pugh, Felix Y. Feng, Daniel E. Spratt

Bibliographic record

VenueEuropean Urology · 2025
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldMedicine
TopicProstate Cancer Diagnosis and Treatment
Canadian institutionsCentre Hospitalier de l’Université de MontréalUniversité LavalHôpital Notre-DameNova Scotia Cancer Centre
FundersBayerAstellas Pharma USNational Cancer InstituteNRG OncologyProstate Cancer Foundation
KeywordsProstatectomyBiomarkerBiochemical recurrenceProstate cancerMetastasisProspective cohort studyDistant metastasisClinical trial

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: Biochemical recurrence (BCR) after radical prostatectomy (RP) is a heterogeneous disease state in prostate cancer with multiple treatment options. Improved risk stratification could enable more personalized decision-making. We developed and validated a digital pathology-based multimodal artificial intelligence (MMAI) model to predict outcomes in post-RP BCR patients undergoing salvage therapy. METHODS: An MMAI model was trained to predict distant metastasis (DM) using prostate histopathology image features and clinical variables (pathologic grade group, pathologic T stage, prostate-specific antigen level before salvage radiotherapy [SRT], age, and surgical margin). The locked model was validated in 533 patients from NRG/RTOG 9601 and 0534 treated with SRT ± hormone therapy (HT), using Cox regression and time-dependent area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. KEY FINDINGS AND LIMITATIONS: With a median follow-up of 9.3 yrs, MMAI score was significantly associated with DM (subdistribution hazard ratio = 2.17 per standard deviation [95% confidence interval 1.65-2.85]; p < 0.001) and remained independently prognostic after adjusting for clinical variables and treatment. The 10-yr time-dependent area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for MMAI was 0.74 compared with 0.68 for a clinical nomogram. Binary risk categorization demonstrated higher 10-yr DM incidence in the MMAI high-risk (25%) than in the low-risk (8.8%) group. The absolute reduction in 10-yr DM incidence with HT plus SRT versus SRT alone was 21% in the high-risk group versus 2.5% in the low-risk group. Limitations include the use of archived trial cohorts. CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL IMPLICATIONS: The post-RP MMAI model provides individualized risk estimates after SRT ± HT and may support shared decision-making about salvage treatment. External and prospective validation are ongoing.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame distilled prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.001
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.001
Version: codex-gemma-dda1882f352aValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Observational · Consensus signal: Observational
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: Empirical
Teacher disagreement score0.149
Threshold uncertainty score0.568

Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0010.001
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0000.000
Bibliometrics0.0000.000
Science and technology studies0.0000.000
Scholarly communication0.0000.000
Open science0.0000.000
Research integrity0.0000.000
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0000.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.029
GPT teacher head0.281
Teacher spread0.252 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.

The models applied no category: nothing in the taxonomy fit this work.
Study designObservational
Domainnot available
GenreEmpirical

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

Quick stats

Citations4
Published2025
Admission routes1
Has abstractyes

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