Beyond the Flow: Multifractal Clustering of River Discharge Across Canada Using Near-Century Data
Bibliographic record
Abstract
River discharge scaling is fundamental to the global hydrological cycle and to water resource assessment. This study investigates the existence of multiple scaling regimes and introduces a novel framework for clustering river discharge using multiscale fractal characteristics. We analyzed daily discharge data from 38 stations across continental Canada over an 80-year period. Multifractal characterization was performed at decadal and long-term scales using three key parameters: the singularity exponent (α0), multifractal strength (α), and asymmetry index (r). K-means clustering in the α−r, α0−r, and α−α0 planes revealed distinct clusters, with the asymmetric parameter (r) emerging as the strongest distinguishing factor. These clusters represent groups of rivers with similar dynamical structures: the α−r clusters categorize discharge based on scaling strength and fluctuation influence. Analysis of the generalized Hurst exponent revealed anti-persistent behavior at most stations, with exceptions at five specific locations. This multifractal clustering approach provides a powerful method for classifying river regimes based on intrinsic characteristics and identifying the physical drivers of discharge fluctuations.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.004 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".