Constructing a Closed-Loop Model of “Online Social Fission–Offline Transaction” for Small and Medium Retail Enterprises

In the face of the dual challenges of rising customer acquisition costs for small and medium retail enterprises globally (508 RMB per person in China and approximately 480 USD per person in the United States) and a social fission conversion rate of less than 5%, this study focuses on the proposition of “zero-cost content-driven growth” and constructs and empirically tests a five-step closed-loop model of “online social fission–offline transaction.” A framework integrating “AR visual content stimulation (S) –lightweight situational inducement (O) –private domain retention and transmission (R)” is proposed. Based on a 94-day longitudinal tracking of 30 multi-category stores in three Chinese cities (Wuhan, Xiangyang, and Lhasa), including 9 jewelry stores, 12 clothing stores, and 9 cosmetics stores, 423,000 micro-behavioral data points were collected (comprising 28,000 AR shares, 336,000 exposures, and 41,500 clicks). Structural equation modeling using Smart-PLS 4.0 and segmented regression analysis using Stata 17 were conducted. The results show that: (1) Zero-cost AR sharing has a significant positive correlation with the conversion rate of “exposure–click” (β=0.011, p<0.001, R2=0.34), with a 1.1% increase in conversion for every additional 100 shares, maintaining stable gains even when marginal costs are zero; (2) The cost of in-store gifts has an inverse U-shaped relationship with the conversion rate of “click–transaction” (inflection point at 41.2 RMB, 95% CI [38.7,43.5]), with the conversion rate peaking at 18.7% in the 35-45 RMB range (dropping to 11.2% below 30 RMB and to 13.9% above 50 RMB); (3) The intensity of private domain operations has a partial mediating effect on the “transaction – repurchase – re-fission” path (indirect effect = 0.39, Boot SE = 0.04, 95% CI [0.31,0.48]), accounting for 42% of the total effect; (4) Cross-regional robustness tests show that the customer acquisition costs for the experimental groups in Wuhan, Xiangyang, and Lhasa are 167 RMB per person, 172 RMB per person, and 168 RMB per person, respectively, a 66.5% average reduction compared to the control group (503 RMB per person), with ROI remaining stable at 1:15.2 to 1:15.7 (ANOVA, F=1.23, p=0.29). This study not only provides small and medium retail enterprises with a lightweight growth solution under a budget of “≤50 RMB per customer” but also expands the theoretical boundaries of the SOR framework in the context of “zero-cost visual content stimulation,” offering empirical evidence for cross-cultural retail digitalization research in China. (Sung, E. C., 2021)

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