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Record W7117452601 · doi:10.1080/09546634.2025.2592448

A novel nomogram based on clinical features and laboratory parameters to predict biologic-refractory psoriasis patients

2025· article· en· W7117452601 on OpenAlexaff
Kun Hu, Yizhang Liu, Xiang Chen, Yi Xiao, Yehong Kuang

Bibliographic record

VenueJournal of Dermatological Treatment · 2025
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldImmunology and Microbiology
TopicPsoriasis: Treatment and Pathogenesis
Canadian institutionsSKiN Health
FundersNational Key Research and Development Program of ChinaNational Natural Science Foundation of China
KeywordsNomogramPsoriasisPredictive value of testsClinical trial

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

PURPOSE: Biologic-refractory psoriasis has emerged as an area of unmet need in a landscape of generally well-controlled disease. The study aimed to establish a predictive model grounded in the clinical features and laboratory parameters to assess the risk of biologic-refractory patient (BRP) prior to initiating biologic therapy. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Biologic-naïve psoriasis patients who initiated their first biologic at the Department of Dermatology of Xiangya Hospital were included and randomized into training and validation sets in a 6:4 ratio. Logistic regression and lasso analysis were performed to screen the risk variables for BRP status. RESULTS: Seven hundred and forty-two psoriatic patients comprising 40 BRPs were included. Body mass index, nonalcoholic fatty liver disease, psoriasis area and severity index, direct bilirubin level, indirect bilirubin level, and erythrocyte sedimentation rate level were identified as predictive factors of BRP. Nomogram models incorporating these factors demonstrated excellent discrimination capabilities with areas under the curve of 0.915 (95%CI, 0.846-0.916) in the training cohort and 0.933 (95%CI, 0.884-0.934) in the validation cohort. Calibration curves indicated good calibration for both cohorts, and decision curve analysis (DCA) revealed the excellent clinical utility of the predictive model. CONCLUSIONS: We developed the nomogram that integrated clinical features and laboratory parameters, providing a convenient and efficient method for predicting BRP risk.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame distilled prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.000
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.000
Version: codex-gemma-dda1882f352aValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Observational · Consensus signal: Observational
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: Empirical
Teacher disagreement score0.122
Threshold uncertainty score0.815

Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0010.000
Bibliometrics0.0000.000
Science and technology studies0.0000.000
Scholarly communication0.0000.000
Open science0.0000.000
Research integrity0.0000.000
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0000.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.030
GPT teacher head0.300
Teacher spread0.270 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.

The models applied no category: nothing in the taxonomy fit this work.
Study designObservational
Domainnot available
GenreEmpirical

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

Quick stats

Citations0
Published2025
Admission routes1
Has abstractyes

Explore more

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