Risk analysis of firm energy coverage in colombia in the medium term
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The recent auction of rm energy and the decisions on medium-term coverage give rise to risks in the supply of electricity in Colombia in the coming periods. Taking into account the possible risks that may arise, such as: non-compliance with FEO due to generation units (six [6] non-compliances during 2015-2016 term), the delay of generation projects with committed rm energy (Hidroituango case) and the availability of rm energy in the market, imply a systemic risk for the electric power supply in the medium term. Through the study of technical documents and resolutions, issued by the CREG, about the medium term energy balances in 2018, rm energy supply and demand balances were reconstructed, including the results of the last FEO auction carried out in the rst quarter of 2019, in order to carry out a risk analysis based on these same scenarios. It was observed that the amount of FEO auctioned exceeds the quantity of demand projected, meaning that the CREG assumed a conservative position by purchasing more energy than necessary (8650 GWh-year and 1027 GWh-year respectively), this is a situation that has occurred on more than one occasion
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.006 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.003 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".