Replication Data for: Long-Run Confidence: Estimating Uncertainty when using Long-Run Multipliers
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Researchers are often interested in the long-run relationship between variables where the dependent variable has dynamic properties. Though determining the long-run multiplier (LRM) for an independent variable is straightforward, correctly estimating the significance of the LRM is often difficult, especially when time series are short and tests for series’ stationarity are uncertain. We propose a Bayesian framework for estimating the LRM by using a bounded prior on the lagged dependent variable to constrain estimates for dynamic processes to the plausible range of values arising from either stationary or integrated series, and then taking draws of the posterior distribution to summarize the credible region. Doing so provides direct estimates of the LRM and its uncertainty, even for short time series. We highlight the advantages of this approach via Monte Carlo experiments and replicate several studies to show that our method clarifies long-run relationships that were inconclusive using existing techniques.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.016 | 0.113 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.004 | 0.007 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.003 | 0.002 |
| Open science | 0.005 | 0.003 |
| Research integrity | 0.004 | 0.003 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.040 | 0.030 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".