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US agri-food exports under D. Trump's new tariff policy

2025· article· en· W7122781856 on OpenAlex
Larisa Chuvakhina

Why this work is in the frame

A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.

aboutThe title or abstract carries a Canadian signal from the geographic lexicon.
no affNo Canadian affiliation: this work is invisible to an affiliation-only frame.
No Canadian affiliation. An affiliation-only frame, the usual design, would never have seen this work. It is one of the works that make the case for inverting the frame.

Bibliographic record

VenueMezhdunarodnyi sel skokhozyaistvennyi zhurnal · 2025
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldSocial Sciences
TopicGlobal Political and Economic Relations
Canadian institutionsnot available
Fundersnot available
KeywordsProtectionismTariffAgricultureTrade barrierCommercial policyQuarter (Canadian coin)Production (economics)Trade warAgricultural policy

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

The study examines the impact of D. Trump's new tariff policy on US agri-food exports, aiming to identify the consequences of protectionist measures for the American agricultural sector and farmers. The methodology is based on contextual and logical analysis, comparison and generalization methods. The research establishes that the US agricultural sector becomes the primary target of retaliatory trade measures, leading to export reduction and decreasing farm incomes. Federal economic assistance programs only partially compensate losses, providing farmers with support amounting to 10 billion dollars under the Farm Bill extended until September 2025. The analysis shows that traditional importers of American products are reorienting toward alternative markets: China, having imposed tariffs of 135 to 145% on American agricultural products, increases purchases from Brazil, whose soybean harvest in 2025 will reach a record 164.3 million tons, with total production of grains, legumes, and oilseeds reaching 327.6 million tons. The study reveals specific features of US trade relations with Canada, where high tariffs on dairy products reach up to 300%, and with Mexico, which remains the largest export market for American agricultural products. For the EU, increased duties of up to 200% on European wines threaten the loss of the American market, which accounts for a quarter of wine exports from Italy and Spain. According to the WTO, the imposed tariffs will lead to a 0.2% decline in international trade in 2025 and an 8-10% increase in global food prices. The study concludes that Russian exporters will not gain significant advantages from the trade confrontation, as Russia is not considered by China as a key alternative supplier of agricultural products.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

Full frame distilled prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.001
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.001
Version: codex-gemma-dda1882f352aValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesMeta-epidemiology (narrow), Science and technology studies, Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Theoretical or conceptual · Consensus signal: none
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: none
Teacher disagreement score0.699
Threshold uncertainty score1.000

Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0010.001
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0000.000
Bibliometrics0.0000.001
Science and technology studies0.0010.001
Scholarly communication0.0000.000
Open science0.0010.000
Research integrity0.0000.001
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0020.001

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.019
GPT teacher head0.307
Teacher spread0.288 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it